BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret Population Trend in Arizona

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Arizona has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-83%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has collapsed in Arizona: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Arizona is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±195.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±195.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Arizona is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±195.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.74
20260.000.000.74
20270.000.000.74
20280.000.000.74
20290.000.000.74

Great Egret Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Great Egret in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laguna420131980
Casa Grande320192018
Palo Verde 2320222014
Dateland320242024
Red Rock219991999
Redington220101999
Cibola Lake120161994
Palo Verde120131997
Araby120221992
Prescott119931993
Red Rock 2120192019
Mcneal120172017
Hope120092009
Carr Mtn120242016

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.