BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pied-billed Grebe Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWetland birds

Pied-billed Grebe in Minnesota has surged: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+116%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pied-billed Grebe Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pied-billed Grebe has surged in Minnesota: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pied-billed Grebe Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.40 (95% range 0.01–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±151%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±151%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.40 (95% range 0.01–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±151%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.010.79
20260.400.010.79
20270.400.010.79
20280.400.010.80
20290.400.010.80

Pied-billed Grebe Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Pied-billed Grebe in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Stone620121995
Sherburne Nr520241990
Courtland520241978
Chokio420241978
Maynard320061996
Tracy320182013
Greenbush320161996
Minnetonka220211976
Dawson220241975
Princeton220161970
Knapp220241970
Wigwam Bay220191969
Backus220222013
Cass Lake220161983
Lude220091989
Fairmont220032003
Le Center220161996
Glenwood220191993
Brainerd220111994
Bigfork219981993
Money Creek120131974
Hartland120012001
Huntley119851971
Ash Creek120161980
Tamarac Nwr120081991

Pied-billed Grebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.