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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pied-billed Grebe Population Trend in Kansas

All statesWetland birds

Pied-billed Grebe in Kansas has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-51%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pied-billed Grebe Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pied-billed Grebe has fallen sharply in Kansas: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Pied-billed Grebe Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.030.000.13
20240.030.000.13
20250.030.000.12
20260.030.000.12
20270.030.000.12

Pied-billed Grebe Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Pied-billed Grebe in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jewell719941994
Albert220191973
Seneca220212004
Logan120101993
Lapland120011976
Missler119991999
Lakin119781978
Olathe119751975
Berwet120162016
Kanopolis119821982
Trading Post120222004

Pied-billed Grebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.