BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pied-billed Grebe Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesWetland birds

Pied-billed Grebe in New Mexico has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+39%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pied-billed Grebe Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pied-billed Grebe in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Pied-billed Grebe Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in New Mexico is projected to fall about 55% by 2024 — from 0.09 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in New Mexico is projected to fall about 55% by 2024 — from 0.09 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.040.000.12
20210.040.000.12
20220.040.000.12
20230.040.000.12
20240.040.000.12

Pied-billed Grebe Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Pied-billed Grebe in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stinking Lk.819961994
Dulce520192000
Laborcita220061993
Bitter Lake120152015
Logan120052002
Shiprock119971996
San Antonio119741974
Angel Fire120011992
Angel Fire 2120172005
Maxwell120072005

Pied-billed Grebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.