BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Tern Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWetland birds

Black Tern in Minnesota has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-84%Since 1969
54Routes In State
57Years

Notable Black Tern Trends in Minnesota

long arc declinecomputed index

Black Tern has collapsed in Minnesota: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black Tern Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Black Tern in Minnesota is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2029
0.13Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.495% range
±96%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.250.001.5
20260.220.001.5
20270.190.001.5
20280.160.001.4
20290.130.001.4

Black Tern Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Black Tern in Minnesota.
Bagley2020061995
Greenbush1620221996
Chokio North1320111993
Sherburne Nr1120241990
Maynard1019711967
Backus820021968
Sherry Lake819821969
Knapp720241967
Gluek720041967
Grygla720031980
Worthington720062005
Big Stone720111995
Chandler619711969
Tenney620141978
Appleton520221986
Chokio520221969
Redwood Fall419841980
Pine River420001967
Bena419771967
Ashby420161997
Oklee319691969
Money Creek220111974
St Stephen220051967
Glyndon220211978
Lake Bronson219991978

Black Tern Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganmissourimontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.