BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Tern Population Trend in Idaho

All statesWetland birds

Black Tern in Idaho has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-30%Since 1978
3Routes In State
22Years

Notable Black Tern Trends in Idaho

No notable trend signals for Black Tern in Idaho. See the full index history below.

Black Tern Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Black Tern in Idaho is projected to fall about 34% by 2027 — from 0.19 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2027
0.13Projected 2027 index
0.00–0.6995% range
±64.9%Backtest error
19702027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20230.160.000.72
20240.150.000.72
20250.140.000.71
20260.140.000.70
20270.130.000.69

Black Tern Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Black Tern in Idaho.
Naples620221989
Henry619781978
Springfield219731970

Black Tern Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.