BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Tern Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWetland birds

Black Tern in North Dakota has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+69%Since 1969
38Routes In State
57Years

Notable Black Tern Trends in North Dakota

long arc increasecomputed index

Black Tern has risen sharply in North Dakota: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black Tern Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Black Tern in North Dakota is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 3.3–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029
12Projected 2029 index
3.3–2295% range
±27.8%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025122.821
2026122.921
2027123.021
2028123.221
2029123.322

Black Tern Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Black Tern in North Dakota.
Horsehead Lk8520241981
Lakota 28520242010
Buchanan7320241967
Wild Rose6620241982
Lakota5720091968
Rolla3720241969
Montpelier3620241990
Cooperstown3120241969
Sheyenne Lk3020241980
Forman2820241968
Powers Lake2620241980
Danzig 22420242019
Carpio2020231969
Lake George1920211967
Braddock1620221989
Denbigh1520241968
Niles1420241989
Webster1120241989
Kempton919811976
Danzig820111982
Edgeley620241982
Wimbledon620241989
Turtle Mtns620241980
Regan420191968
Ft Yates419691969

Black Tern Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-yorkohiooregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.