BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Tern Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesWetland birds

Black Tern in South Dakota has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-84%Since 1969
28Routes In State
53Years

Notable Black Tern Trends in South Dakota

long arc declinecomputed index

Black Tern has collapsed in South Dakota: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black Tern Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Black Tern in South Dakota is projected to fall about 70% by 2028 — from 0.67 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-70%Change by 2028
0.20Projected 2028 index
0.00–2.595% range
±87.4%Backtest error
19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.320.002.6
20250.290.002.6
20260.260.002.6
20270.230.002.5
20280.200.002.5

Black Tern Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Black Tern in South Dakota.
White Lake3820111967
Howard2420081970
Long Lake2420191967
Lacreek1320192019
Forbes1120231967
Cottonwood920091994
Volga920191967
Owanka720141967
Lennox620051976
Gettysburg520231969
Raymond420211967
Conde419671967
Harding319821967
Gorman319981995
Tripp220081988
Lane219851977
Wilmot220191967
Veblen220231967
Laplant219781978
Turton220231985
Pioneer119951995
Chamberlain119681968
Roswell120081967
Broadland120121978
Crow Creek120221969

Black Tern Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregontexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.