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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Tern Population Trend in Kansas

All statesWetland birds

Black Tern in Kansas has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-93%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Tern Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Tern has collapsed in Kansas: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Black Tern Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Black Tern in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.22 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2782.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2782.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Tern in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.22 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2782.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.240.001.4
20230.230.001.4
20240.230.001.3
20250.220.001.3
20260.220.001.3

Black Tern Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Black Tern in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Missler2320031978
Olsburg220072007
Coats119971981
Albert120211967
Wallace120102010

Black Tern Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.