Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Black Tern Population Trend in Nebraska
Black Tern in Nebraska has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
-83%Since 1969
16Routes In State
49Years
Notable Black Tern Trends in Nebraska
long arc declinecomputed index
Black Tern has collapsed in Nebraska: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
Black Tern Population Forecast in Nebraska
If the recent trend holds, Black Tern in Nebraska is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+36%Change by 2029
0.11Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.7895% range
±40.5%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| 2026 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| 2027 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| 2028 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| 2029 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
Black Tern Survey Routes in Nebraska
| Swan Lake | 7 | 2022 | 1969 |
| Gretna | 5 | 2015 | 1992 |
| Piester Lake | 3 | 2018 | 1967 |
| Kennedy | 3 | 2021 | 1993 |
| Brownlee | 2 | 2018 | 1990 |
| Nenzel | 2 | 2019 | 2019 |
| Wheeler Co | 2 | 2024 | 1982 |
| Table | 1 | 2003 | 2003 |
| Kimball | 1 | 2005 | 2005 |
| Gordon | 1 | 2024 | 2001 |
| Crescent Lk | 1 | 2016 | 1980 |
| Surprise | 1 | 1979 | 1975 |
| Bassett | 1 | 2024 | 2019 |
| Sparta | 1 | 1980 | 1967 |
| Midway | 1 | 1980 | 1980 |
| Johnstown | 1 | 1969 | 1969 |
Black Tern Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.