Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Black Tern Population Trend in Utah
Black Tern in Utah has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1994.
-80%Since 1994
4Routes In State
30Years
Notable Black Tern Trends in Utah
long arc declinecomputed index
Black Tern has collapsed in Utah: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1994.
Black Tern Population Forecast in Utah
If the recent trend holds, Black Tern in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2029
0.01Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.1695% range
±122%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| 2026 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| 2027 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| 2028 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| 2029 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
Black Tern Survey Routes in Utah
| Bear River | 1 | 2023 | 1994 |
| Randolph | 1 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Neponset Res | 1 | 2004 | 2002 |
| Callao | 1 | 1998 | 1998 |
Black Tern Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.