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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Franklin's Gull Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWetland birds

Franklin's Gull in Minnesota has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-85%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Franklin's Gull Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Franklin's Gull has collapsed in Minnesota: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Franklin's Gull Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Franklin's Gull in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1393.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1393.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Franklin's Gull in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1393.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0014
20260.000.0014
20270.000.0014
20280.000.0014
20290.000.0014

Franklin's Gull Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Franklin's Gull in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Appleton14719841978
Gluek4019731973
Chokio4020211970
Wylie3420091979
Edwards2219961989
Grygla1620151976
Worthington1420182004
Warroad1220221993
Glenwood1120042004
Arlington919711969
Maynard619841984
Tenney619961980
Courtland419781978
Lude420221982
Big Stone320071996
Glyndon219831983
Erie220081976
Badger220181979
Ash Creek119951995
Knapp120241973
St Stephen120012001
Oklee120061969
Lake Bronson119991982
Tyler119941994
Greenbush120181993

Franklin's Gull Population Trend in Other States

californiaidahokansasmontananebraskanorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.