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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Franklin's Gull Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWetland birds

Franklin's Gull in Minnesota has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-94%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Franklin's Gull Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Franklin's Gull has collapsed in Minnesota: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Franklin's Gull Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Franklin's Gull in Minnesota is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1502.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1502.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Franklin's Gull in Minnesota is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1502.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0014
20270.000.0014
20280.000.0014
20290.000.0014
20300.000.0014

Franklin's Gull Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Franklin's Gull in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Appleton14719841978
Gluek4019731973
Chokio4020211970
Wylie3420091979
Edwards2219961989
Grygla1620151976
Worthington1420182004
Glenwood1120042004
Arlington919711969
Warroad820251993
Maynard619841984
Tenney619961980
Courtland419781978
Big Stone320071996
Glyndon219831983
Erie220081976
Badger220181979
Ash Creek119951995
Knapp120241973
St Stephen120012001
Oklee120061969
Lude120251982
Lake Bronson119991982
Tyler119941994
Greenbush120181993

Franklin's Gull Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.