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Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Franklin's Gull Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWetland birds

Franklin's Gull in Oregon has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-92%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Franklin's Gull Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Franklin's Gull has collapsed in Oregon: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Franklin's Gull Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Franklin's Gull in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 0.00–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2905.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2905.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Franklin's Gull in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 0.00–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2905.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.007.6
20271.70.007.6
20281.70.007.7
20291.70.007.7
20301.80.007.7

Franklin's Gull Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Franklin's Gull in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harney Lake7520221993
Malheur Nwr3220221988
Princeton1319851972
Modoc Point1320092009
Lakeview1120222022
Warner Vally520232004
Catlow Rim320242014
Chinchalo320162015
Fish Lake320251986
Modoc Point 2220252025
Blizzard Gap220231997
Crane220211995
Fandango Can120162016

Franklin's Gull Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanorth-dakotasouth-dakotautahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.