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Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Franklin's Gull Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWetland birds

Franklin's Gull in North Dakota has surged: up 791% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+791%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Franklin's Gull Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Franklin's Gull has surged in North Dakota: up 790% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Franklin's Gull Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Franklin's Gull in North Dakota is projected to fall about 62% by 2030 — from 42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 0.00–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Franklin's Gull in North Dakota is projected to fall about 62% by 2030 — from 42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 0.00–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026150.0033
2027150.0033
2028160.0033
2029160.0033
2030160.0033

Franklin's Gull Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Franklin's Gull in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild Rose80420251997
Powers Lake11920251994
Denbigh11420251968
Lakota9920031968
Carpio7020231969
Niles6420251989
Loraine2820181982
Webster2120241989
Parshall2119951982
Dunn Center2019681968
Dickinson1520252013
Montpelier1020241996
Sydney619681968
Edgeley520251980
Bowesmont519951995
Danzig420141983
Emerado420151982
Sheyenne Lk420251986
Walcott320071972
Tobacco319931993
Abercrombie319841969
Braddock320231990
Lake George220231968
Kempton219681968
Horsehead Lk220251983

Franklin's Gull Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.