BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sora Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWetland birds

Sora in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-62%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sora Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sora has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Sora Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Sora in Minnesota is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sora in Minnesota is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.000.68
20260.280.000.68
20270.280.000.67
20280.280.000.67
20290.270.000.67

Sora Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Sora in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Backus520191968
Brainerd520241993
Tracy420192005
Osseo320191967
Lake Bronson320111979
New London320242002
Glenwood320191993
Ashby320191997
Big Stone320081996
Sherburne Nr220241990
Minnetonka220241969
Knapp220191967
Waskish220171978
Worthington220162004
Cass Lake220121989
Greenbush220241993
Money Creek120121971
Hartland120002000
Chandler120152015
Ash Creek119951995
Tamarac Nwr120091994
Lakeville119921975
Arlington120151967
Courtland120191978
Redwood Fall119841984

Sora Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemassachusettsmichiganmontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.