BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sora Population Trend in Washington

All statesWetland birds

Sora in Washington has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-45%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sora Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sora in Washington. See the full index history below.

Sora Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Sora in Washington is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±130.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sora in Washington is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.23
20260.120.000.23
20270.120.000.23
20280.120.000.23
20290.120.000.23

Sora Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Sora in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brewster520002000
Mendota319771977
Carnation320081988
Turnbull Nwr220231994
Bay View219981998
Port Angeles119921988
Twisp120211984
Chewelah120181980
Kamilche119771977
Ewan 2120242024
L Pend O Nwr120142014
Moses Lake120181974
Harrington120121980
Reardan120191988
Mendota 2119931993
Rimrock120161988
Wapato120181985
Snowden120162016
Kendall120152003
Winthrop120002000
Tonasket120131984
Twin Lakes119881985
Cusick120241984
Everett120242024
Wilbur120191999

Sora Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.