BirdAnalyst
Guild · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wetland Birds In North Dakota

All statesNorth Dakota

28 species in this guild. As a group they are +41%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for wetland birds in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Wetland Birds In North Dakota Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in North Dakota is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 13–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in North Dakota is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 13–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026161320
2027171320
2028171321
2029171321
2030171321

Member Species In North Dakota

Wetland birds species in North Dakota.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
American CootRallidae-51%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-34%
Horned GrebePodicipedidae-32%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-0%
Yellow RailRallidae+3%
Black TernLaridae+43%
American BitternArdeidae+53%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae+88%
Western GrebePodicipedidae+91%
Common TernLaridae+108%
Pied-billed GrebePodicipedidae+108%
Virginia RailRallidae+131%
SoraRallidae+184%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+233%
American White PelicanPelecanidae+247%
Great EgretArdeidae+259%
Nelson's SparrowPasserellidae+266%
Yellow-headed BlackbirdIcteridae+376%
Western Cattle-EgretArdeidae+726%
White-faced IbisThreskiornithidae+728%
California GullLaridae+730%
Ring-billed GullLaridae+773%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae+777%
Franklin's GullLaridae+791%
Swamp SparrowPasserellidae+888%
Forster's TernLaridae15×
Red-necked GrebePodicipedidae28×
Eared GrebePodicipedidae36×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.