BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Coot Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWetland birds

American Coot in North Dakota has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Coot Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Coot has fallen sharply in North Dakota: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Coot Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, American Coot in North Dakota is projected to rise about 141% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.6 (95% range 0.00–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+141%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Coot in North Dakota is projected to rise about 141% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.6 (95% range 0.00–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.50.0024
20279.50.0024
20289.50.0024
20299.60.0024
20309.60.0024

American Coot Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording American Coot in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lakota4020091968
Wild Rose3420241982
Sydney3119831967
Lakota 22320252010
Horsehead Lk1920251980
Niles1820251989
Wimbledon1320251981
Buchanan1320251967
Montpelier720251995
Webster620241992
Carpio620171970
Cedar Creek519901971
Rolla420241969
Loraine420161983
Gorham420161968
Braddock420231988
Edgeley320241980
Emerado320171974
Denbigh320251969
Powers Lake320251982
Parshall320131982
Danzig 2320252019
Lake George220231967
Danzig220141982
Cooperstown220251969

American Coot Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutfloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.