BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Coot Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

American Coot in Texas has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-41%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Coot Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Coot in Texas. See the full index history below.

American Coot Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Texas is projected to rise about 440% by 2028 — from 0.18 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1381.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+440%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.95Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1381.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Texas is projected to rise about 440% by 2028 — from 0.18 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1381.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.900.002.7
20250.910.002.8
20260.930.002.8
20270.940.002.8
20280.950.002.8

American Coot Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording American Coot in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Panhandle3020162007
L. Atascosa Nwr2020231998
Chandler 22020112011
Loyola Beach2020081998
Zapata1819721968
Dougherty1520151997
Bayside 31520182016
Bayside1219961994
Progreso1020061995
Indianola920121999
Friona820172001
Winnie719961995
Chandler719731973
Catarina620041981
Raymondville620071969
Floydada520172007
Padre Island Pais420152015
Moon Lake 2420212013
George West320101972
Danbury320191985
Katy320131971
Loyola Beach 2320222010
Massey Lake320061974
Quitman Canyon 2320182018
Moon Lake320111995

American Coot Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutfloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.