BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Coot Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesWetland birds

American Coot in New Mexico has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-79%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Coot Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Coot has collapsed in New Mexico: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

American Coot Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, American Coot in New Mexico is projected to rise about 235% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1146.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+235%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1146.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Coot in New Mexico is projected to rise about 235% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1146.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.630.001.5
20260.640.001.5
20270.650.001.5
20280.650.001.5
20290.660.001.5

American Coot Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording American Coot in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maxwell4020171997
Wagon Mound1019731973
Dulce720242000
Grenville319791977
Valencia319891989
Angel Fire320021992
Capulin219941993
Crownpoint219901970
San Antonio219751974
La Plata 2220162016
Pastura219991999
Laborcita220171993
Red Rock219951992
Farmington119801975
Cooley Lake120242024
Angel Fire 2120242005
Cloudcroft119931982
Shiprock120181996
Stinking Lk.119981992
Mesilla119991998
Bluewater Lake120162016
Logan119941994

American Coot Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutfloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.