BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Coot Population Trend in Arizona

All statesWetland birds

American Coot in Arizona has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-31%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Coot Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Coot in Arizona. See the full index history below.

American Coot Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Arizona is projected to fall about 33% by 2028 — from 0.93 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.62Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±104.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Arizona is projected to fall about 33% by 2028 — from 0.93 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.630.002.0
20250.630.002.0
20260.630.002.0
20270.620.002.0
20280.620.002.0

American Coot Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording American Coot in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alpine2120231992
Araby1120231993
Mormon Lake719751969
Palo Verde 2520232021
Hunt319921992
Willow Beach 2320182017
Prescott220191978
Cibola Lake220221996
Casa Grande220222022
Oraibi119991999
Sawmill120141989
Vicksburg119881988
Laguna120111983
Dateland120012001
Coolidge119791975
Williams119931993
Alamo Res.120162004
Palo Verde120012001
Redington120012001

American Coot Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutfloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.