Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Common Tern Population Trend in North Dakota
Common Tern in North Dakota has surged: up 174% on the route-weighted index since 1979.
+174%Since 1979
17Routes In State
40Years
Notable Common Tern Trends in North Dakota
long arc increasecomputed index
Common Tern has surged in North Dakota: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1979.
Common Tern Population Forecast in North Dakota
If the recent trend holds, Common Tern in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.52 (95% range 0.01–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+9%Change by 2029
0.52Projected 2029 index
0.01–1.095% range
±134.3%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| 2026 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.0 |
| 2027 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 1.0 |
| 2028 | 0.51 | 0.01 | 1.0 |
| 2029 | 0.52 | 0.01 | 1.0 |
Common Tern Survey Routes in North Dakota
| Horsehead Lk | 12 | 2024 | 2001 |
| Emerado | 8 | 1997 | 1997 |
| Braddock | 8 | 1989 | 1989 |
| Tobacco | 5 | 1979 | 1973 |
| Montpelier | 3 | 2022 | 2014 |
| Lake George | 2 | 2004 | 2004 |
| Douglas Crk | 2 | 2018 | 1982 |
| Niles | 2 | 1993 | 1993 |
| Danzig | 1 | 2014 | 2008 |
| Wild Rose | 1 | 2023 | 1985 |
| Powers Lake | 1 | 2024 | 1980 |
| Parshall | 1 | 1993 | 1984 |
| Buchanan | 1 | 2015 | 2004 |
| Sheyenne Lk | 1 | 2009 | 1985 |
| Turtle Mtns | 1 | 2004 | 1983 |
| Regan | 1 | 1998 | 1998 |
| Stanley | 1 | 1992 | 1971 |
Common Tern Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.