Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Tern Population Trend in Montana

Common Tern in Montana has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-83%Since 1976
10Routes In State
19Years

Notable Common Tern Trends in Montana

long arc declinecomputed index

Common Tern has collapsed in Montana: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Common Tern Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Common Tern in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±231.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.000.1295% range
±231.2%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.000.12
20260.000.000.12
20270.000.000.12
20280.000.000.12
20290.000.000.12

Common Tern Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Common Tern in Montana.
St Mary419681968
Ester Lake320162016
Great Falls220031973
Brusett219861983
Jordan220001968
Virgelle119901990
Cleveland120132013
Pablo Res.120242024
Augusta120131976
Chinook120182018

Common Tern Population Trend in Other States

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.