BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in North Dakota has surged: up 734% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+734%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has surged in North Dakota: up 734% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in North Dakota is projected to rise about 394% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±213.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+394%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±213.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in North Dakota is projected to rise about 394% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±213.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.340.001.1
20250.340.001.1
20260.340.001.1
20270.350.001.1
20280.350.001.1

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead Lk420141996
Lake George320222000
Forman220081994
Sheyenne Lk220231998
Buchanan220052005
Braddock220112011
Danzig120002000
Montpelier120062006

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.