BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in South Carolina has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has fallen sharply in South Carolina: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in South Carolina is projected to rise about 176% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+176%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±157.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in South Carolina is projected to rise about 176% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.40.0010
20263.30.0010
20273.30.0010
20283.20.0010
20293.20.0010

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bennettsville6020171999
Olar1020191998
Prosperity1019921992
Rome920211967
Red Bluff820242006
Johns Isle719791966
New Holland720231967
Wagener720211977
Bishopville720241974
Nixonville719931988
Foreston620211973
Dale620231998
Holly Hill520241972
Walterboro520171971
Ward520172017
New Ellenton320242010
Adams Run320191988
Little Mtn219811981
Pinewood220191998
Carvers Bay220121998
Nixville220211998
Jamestown119981977
Hardeeville120241967
Coward120221985
Dillon120131974

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.