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Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in South Carolina has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Cattle-Egret in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in South Carolina is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.00–10.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–10.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±149.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in South Carolina is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.00–10.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.20.0010
20273.20.0010
20283.10.0010
20293.00.0010
20303.00.0010.0

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bennettsville6020171999
Wagener2020251977
Olar1020191998
Prosperity1019921992
Rome920211967
Red Bluff920252006
Dale820251998
Johns Isle719791966
Bishopville720251974
Nixonville719931988
Foreston620211973
Walterboro520171971
New Ellenton320242010
Nixville320251998
Adams Run320191988
Hardeeville220251967
New Holland220251967
Little Mtn219811981
Pinewood220191998
Carvers Bay220121998
Jamestown119981977
Holly Hill120251972
Coward120221985
Dillon120131974
Kiawah Island120181999

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.