BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Texas has held roughly steady: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+10%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
167Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Cattle-Egret in Texas. See the full index history below.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Texas is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 3.8–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Texas is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 3.8–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025263.949
2026263.949
2027263.849
2028263.849
2029263.849

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moon Lake52720111994
Massey Lake47820241970
Graford31120191985
Carlos26320241993
Wills Point24220161994
Goliad Prairie23620162004
Oakwood22519951969
Moon Lake 222120242012
Sadler15720241974
Port Acres14320241994
Thornton14019841974
Progreso12720111995
Cayuga12220241996
Rock Island12020241967
Mcfaddin11220162006
Arenosa Crk10320231973
Oyster Lake9920241995
Bayside9520101994
Stowell9420231968
Chandler8920041972
Diboll8820241975
Hinkles Fer8720241968
Lockhart6620241971
Creedmore6120141994
Oak Grove5819991969

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.