BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Texas has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
169Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Cattle-Egret in Texas. See the full index history below.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Texas is projected to rise about 71% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 2.9–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+71%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Texas is projected to rise about 71% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 2.9–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026263.048
2027263.048
2028263.048
2029253.048
2030252.948

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moon Lake52720111994
Massey Lake29820251970
Wills Point24220161994
Goliad Prairie23620162004
Oakwood22519951969
Moon Lake 218220252012
Cayuga17220251996
Stowell17120251968
Rock Island14120251967
Hinkles Fer14020251968
Thornton14019841974
Progreso12720111995
Katy11320251968
Mcfaddin11220162006
Loyola Beach 29620252010
Bayside9520101994
Twichell9120252025
Chandler8920041972
Diboll8820241975
Bayside 38420252005
Manor 28020252025
Arenosa Crk6720251973
Port Acres6320251994
Creedmore6120141994
Danbury5920251967

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.