BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Kentucky has surged: up 429% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+429%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has surged in Kentucky: up 429% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Kentucky is projected to rise about 390% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.04–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+390%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±115%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Kentucky is projected to rise about 390% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.04–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.490.010.97
20260.500.020.98
20270.510.030.99
20280.520.041.00
20290.520.041.0

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Joy2020092009
Iron Bridge1519981967
Bardwell519921988
Canton320242008
Drakesboro219851985
Lovelacevile219851985
Keysburg220011998
Dixie120002000

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.