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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in North Carolina has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Cattle-Egret in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in North Carolina is projected to fall about 82% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.00–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.79Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in North Carolina is projected to fall about 82% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.00–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.990.005.5
20260.940.005.5
20270.890.005.4
20280.840.005.3
20290.790.005.3

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cypress Lakes16420242004
Roseboro15019971996
Wards Corner12020241970
Fairmont2019771977
Shallotte1519911967
Jones Corner1119951995
Hallsboro820161983
Montague820241998
Dismal Swamp619931993
Cypress Cr620212021
Jamesville620141987
Myrtle Grove520241966
Merrimon420231968
Grandy419741971
Lake Surf420192019
Ernul420072003
Rowland420241994
Mattamuskeet320092009
Broad Creek220161994
Beargrass219801980
Supply220211992
Jarvisburg219991992
Reelsboro220002000
Mashoes119821971
Speed120191990

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.