BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in North Carolina has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-26%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Cattle-Egret in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in North Carolina is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±101.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in North Carolina is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.950.005.4
20270.900.005.4
20280.850.005.3
20290.800.005.3
20300.740.005.2

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Roseboro15019971996
Wards Corner12020241970
Cypress Lakes3520252004
Fairmont2019771977
Jarvisburg 21720252000
Shallotte1519911967
Jones Corner1119951995
Bethel1020252003
Hallsboro820161983
Montague820241998
Dismal Swamp619931993
Cypress Cr620212021
Jamesville620141987
Merrimon420231968
Myrtle Grove420251966
Grandy419741971
Lake Surf420192019
Ernul420072003
Rowland420241994
Mattamuskeet320092009
Supply320251992
Broad Creek220161994
Beargrass219801980
Jarvisburg219991992
Reelsboro220002000

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.