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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Tennessee has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-87%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has collapsed in Tennessee: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Tennessee is projected to fall about 92% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-92%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±135.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Tennessee is projected to fall about 92% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.56
20260.030.000.55
20270.020.000.54
20280.010.000.53
20290.010.000.52

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tibbs1520042004
Trenton1519921992
Glen1220102009
Pawpaw720111971
Pawpaw 2520132013
Jefferson Cty220002000
Mansfield219961986
Silerton220242024
Tiptonville120081984
Moscow119991999
Whiteville119841972
Humboldt119821982
Collinwood120232017
Campbellsville120051996
Tullahoma120142014

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.