BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in New Jersey has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-5%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Cattle-Egret in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in New Jersey is projected to rise about 43% by 1999 — from 0.08 in 1994 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±608.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 1999TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 1999 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±608.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in New Jersey is projected to rise about 43% by 1999 — from 0.08 in 1994 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±608.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19691999
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
19950.210.001.3
19960.190.001.2
19970.160.001.2
19980.140.001.2
19990.110.001.2

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Villas1519811979
Ocean City619931980
Cape May Ch419921992
Greenwich219941969

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.