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Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Maryland

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Maryland has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-83%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has collapsed in Maryland: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Maryland is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±329.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±329.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Maryland is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±329.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.5
20260.000.001.5
20270.000.001.5
20280.000.001.5
20290.000.001.5

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Snow Hill1619761966
Melitota1520181979
Pr Frederick1319911991
Hughesville1219961990
Matthews919801980
Honga720111968
Davidsnville620082008
Grove Neck419961992
Easton419901970
Madison420161967
Upper Xrds319961996
Berlin320221980
Elkton320241966
Mardela319801977
Fair Hill219951992
Van Bibber219941993
Tall Timbers220141973
Northeast219931972
Harmony219901990
Cokesbury220091970
Newark220241966
Indiantown119981978
Broomes Isl119811981
Theodore119731971
Millington119921978

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamaineminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.