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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Kansas

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Kansas has surged: up 688% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+688%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has surged in Kansas: up 688% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Kansas is projected to fall about 60% by 2027 — from 0.45 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Kansas is projected to fall about 60% by 2027 — from 0.45 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.350.007.0
20240.310.007.0
20250.270.007.0
20260.230.006.9
20270.180.006.9

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Melrose5019971984
Albert3520191976
Berwet1920222001
Kanopolis1620032003
Solomon1220081994
Pittsburg1120072001
Ellinor820052005
Hays820012001
Lapland519881988
Dalton520151982
Trading Post520082007
Goessel420082001
Le Loup320012001
Damar220002000
Humboldt119961996
Wellington120191984
St John119951995
Coats120182018
Ashland119981998
Olathe120182018
Dover120061999
Barclay120161992
Wreford119941994
Covert119931993
Morehead120012001

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.