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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Florida has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Cattle-Egret in Florida. See the full index history below.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Florida is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 3.1–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Florida is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 3.1–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026255.545
2027254.945
2028244.344
2029243.744
2030233.143

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dowling Park25420251987
St Lucie18420251987
Eglin A.F.B.16120111995
Hildreth 214620252010
Mt. Olive13820252002
Babcock Rnch12019901988
Hildreth11520071987
Alturas11119861971
Flemington10619991987
San Antonio9420251967
Dale Mabry8319881966
Micanopy8019911966
Pennywash Cr7420241987
Blountstown7220251966
Shawano7220021987
Myakka Head6820111966
Mabel6820111966
Belmore6220241966
Sanderson6220211966
Myakka Head 26020212012
Kendall5919911987
Mabel 25920252012
Romeo5820251966
New Hope5820112009
Hilliard5620251966

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.