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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Florida has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has fallen sharply in Florida: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Florida is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 3.4–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Florida is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 3.4–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025265.946
2026255.245
2027254.645
2028244.044
2029233.444

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eglin A.F.B.16120111995
Babcock Rnch12019901988
St Lucie11720241987
Dowling Park11520231987
Hildreth11520071987
Alturas11119861971
Flemington10619991987
Mabel 210420192012
Mt. Olive10320242002
Nobleton8820241987
Dale Mabry8319881966
Micanopy8019911966
San Antonio8020241967
Pennywash Cr7420241987
Shawano7220021987
Myakka Head6820111966
Mabel6820111966
Belmore6220241966
Sanderson6220211966
Myakka Head 26020212012
Kendall5919911987
New Hope5820112009
Devils Gardn5620241987
Hildreth 25520242010
Gardner5419991987

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.