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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Missouri

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Missouri has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+1%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Cattle-Egret in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Missouri is projected to fall about 72% by 2030 — from 0.77 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±243.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±243.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Missouri is projected to fall about 72% by 2030 — from 0.77 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±243.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.260.002.0
20270.250.001.9
20280.240.001.9
20290.230.001.9
20300.210.001.9

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cp Girardeau5220251977
Blodgett1220132013
Reeds919951995
Cassville819941994
Stet819951983
Filley520132013
Frankford519951995
Pineville319921983
Whitewater320242000
Deventer220111972
Watson219931993
Frazier119941994
Tarkio119771977
Syracuse120052005

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandminnesotamississippinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.