BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Missouri

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Missouri has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-53%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has fallen sharply in Missouri: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Missouri is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±301.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±301.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Missouri is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±301.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.001.9
20260.200.001.9
20270.190.001.9
20280.170.001.9
20290.160.001.9

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cp Girardeau2120241977
Blodgett1220132013
Reeds919951995
Cassville819941994
Stet819951983
Filley520132013
Frankford519951995
Pineville319921983
Whitewater320242000
Deventer220111972
Watson219931993
Frazier119941994
Tarkio119771977
Syracuse120052005

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandminnesotamississippinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.