BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Arkansas has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+83%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has surged in Arkansas: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Arkansas is projected to rise about 134% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±214.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+134%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±214.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Arkansas is projected to rise about 134% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±214.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.10.0014
20264.00.0014
20274.00.0014
20283.90.0014
20293.80.0014

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hope3120241972
Gillett3020162010
Massard2520061983
Wilson2119961995
Crows2019891980
South Bend1720231973
Locust Bayou1520041988
Stamps1520241972
Poyen1420061983
Lockesburg1420192010
Poyen 21420212011
Eudora1320161972
Russell1220192019
Kelso1220102010
Ashdown820231977
Springhill720222010
Nance620061992
Coal Hill520091981
Stark320081992
Compton319981998
Avoca320091992
England320212011
Rudy320152015
Ramsey219971982
Hughes220091974

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.