BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Alabama

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Alabama has surged: up 192% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+192%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has surged in Alabama: up 192% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Alabama is projected to rise about 123% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+123%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Alabama is projected to rise about 123% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.80.0015
20265.80.0015
20275.70.0014
20285.60.0014
20295.60.0014

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler Dam50020232011
Madrid8020231994
Dauphin Is6219901967
Whitehall3420231983
Brundidge2420211969
Guntersville2220022002
Foley2019841969
St. Elmo2020211996
St Florian1819911971
Grangeburg1720241966
Dauphin Is 31520212021
Linden1320231976
Lanett1320071970
Latham1319981967
Calebee1220241994
Choccolocco1220002000
Jasper1219981998
Autaugaville1120212006
Mclellan1020241966
Liberty City1019791979
Bay Minette1020241996
Valhermoso Spgs919671967
Brantley920241972
Alabama Pt919961980
Dauphin Is 2920181991

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.