BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in California

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in California has surged: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+116%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has surged in California: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in California is projected to rise about 14× by 2028 — from 0.10 in 2023 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3234.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

14×Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3234.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in California is projected to rise about 14× by 2028 — from 0.10 in 2023 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3234.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20241.50.005.8
20251.50.005.8
20261.50.005.8
20271.50.005.8
20281.50.005.7

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brawley24020121972
Alamo River1820171975
Arvin1320151986
Zamora920082004
Niland920231973
Tranquillity820011984
Orland820132003
Atwater420031981
Westley420052005
Palo Verde320151977
Imperial Dam320101984
Oroville220001989
Bakersfield220042000
San Ysidro219921986
Hollister219931993
Lone Pine219941994
Buena Vista219961993
Crescent Cty119941994
Pennington119901990
Dorris119811980
Moreno119821982
Mark West120162005
Staten Is.120142014

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.