BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Mississippi has surged: up 356% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+356%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has surged in Mississippi: up 356% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Mississippi is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 7.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Mississippi is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 7.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.20.0021
20276.00.0021
20285.90.0021
20295.80.0021
20305.60.0020

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle Lake7120252012
Trace Hinds5220222014
Commerce4219931975
Aberdeen3920251974
Tchula 23919941976
Monticello3320072007
Neely3220122000
Utica3120211975
Cybur2620191967
Corinth2319931993
Fayette2220071974
De Soto2020152009
Lake Mary1819901974
Columbia1820181969
Poplarville1819721972
Embry1720121995
Mt Carmel1620141987
Lucien1420071979
Trace Chickasaw1220182018
Trace South1220192007
Delta N.F.1220211999
Tchula1119751971
Lake1120251978
Fontainbleau1019761972
Benndale820231974

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandminnesotamissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.