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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Virginia

All statesWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Virginia has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-90%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Cattle-Egret Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has collapsed in Virginia: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Cattle-Egret Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2020, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±322.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2020TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2020 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±322.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2020, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±322.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662020
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20160.110.000.68
20170.100.000.68
20180.100.000.67
20190.090.000.66
20200.090.000.66

Western Cattle-Egret Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
White Stone1019731972
Backbay519741967
Cornland319881988
Gloucester220112009
Pungo220151976
Quinby119941966
Brodnax119861979
Chincoteag W120141993
Cape Charles120061992

Western Cattle-Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.