BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eared Grebe Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWetland birds

Eared Grebe in North Dakota has surged: up 36× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

36×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eared Grebe Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eared Grebe has surged in North Dakota: up 36× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Eared Grebe Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in North Dakota is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.89–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.89–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in North Dakota is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.89–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.70.578.8
20274.80.658.9
20284.80.738.9
20294.90.819.0
20305.00.899.1

Eared Grebe Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Eared Grebe in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild Rose9420251982
Edgeley3520192010
Montpelier1620191998
Horsehead Lk1420251980
Lake George1020211991
Buchanan820241967
Lakota 2520252013
Danzig420041982
Braddock420231989
Webster320221995
Denbigh320252013
Sheyenne Lk320251982
Cooperstown220251972
Wimbledon220101999
Lakota220091981
Niles220211993
Regan220152015
Dunn Center219971972
Loraine219991989
Stanley220161997
Bowman220181978
Bentley220132013
Powers Lake220231980
Danzig 2220242024
Forman119681968

Eared Grebe Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.