BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eared Grebe Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWetland birds

Eared Grebe in North Dakota has surged: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

35×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eared Grebe Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eared Grebe has surged in North Dakota: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Eared Grebe Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.9 (95% range 0.77–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.77–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±107.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.9 (95% range 0.77–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.60.468.8
20264.70.548.8
20274.80.618.9
20284.80.699.0
20294.90.779.1

Eared Grebe Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Eared Grebe in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild Rose7620241982
Edgeley3520192010
Horsehead Lk2820241980
Montpelier1620191998
Braddock1220221989
Lakota 21220242013
Lake George1020211991
Sheyenne Lk1020241982
Buchanan820241967
Danzig420041982
Webster320221995
Wimbledon220101999
Lakota220091981
Niles220211993
Regan220152015
Dunn Center219971972
Loraine219991989
Stanley220161997
Bowman220181978
Bentley220132013
Powers Lake220231980
Danzig 2220242024
Forman119681968
Cooperstown120211972
Rolla120151981

Eared Grebe Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.