BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eared Grebe Population Trend in Utah

All statesWetland birds

Eared Grebe in Utah has surged: up 193% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+193%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eared Grebe Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eared Grebe has surged in Utah: up 193% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Eared Grebe Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in Utah is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.00–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±271.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±271.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in Utah is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.00–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±271.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.70.006.2
20262.80.006.3
20272.90.006.3
20282.90.006.4
20293.00.006.4

Eared Grebe Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Eared Grebe in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Callao8920241995
Neponset Res5020181995
Vernal4020181999
Alton2219981997
Saleratus Cr2020161995
Navajo Lake1720171997
Lynn1520211982
M Warner Res1520241993
Bear River720111996
Oak City619821982
Main Canyon420192012
Goshen220062006
Dixie Nf220191996
Ferron220212021
Promontory120231986
Timpie Spg119831982
Grizzly Rdge119971997
E. Bear Lake120172005
Randolph120222022
Snowville120162016
Gold Hill120192019
Delta120192019

Eared Grebe Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexaswashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.