BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eared Grebe Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWetland birds

Eared Grebe in Oregon has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-39%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eared Grebe Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eared Grebe in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Eared Grebe Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in Oregon is projected to fall about 90% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-90%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±135.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in Oregon is projected to fall about 90% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.001.4
20260.100.001.4
20270.090.001.4
20280.070.001.4
20290.060.001.3

Eared Grebe Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Eared Grebe in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warner Vally5320241994
Three Forks1020112011
Modoc Point420101971
Catlow Rim320232015
Barnes Val219851971
Blizzard Gap220241993
Fish Lake220231983
Merrill119941994
Harney Lake119941994
Lorane119941994
Dell Spring119831970
Flook Lake120061996
Princeton119821979

Eared Grebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.