BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eared Grebe Population Analysis

PodicipedidaeWetland birdsPodiceps nigricollis

Eared Grebe has surged: up 78× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

78×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
246RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Eared Grebe

The Eared Grebe (Podiceps nigricollis) is a North American member of the Grebes (Podicipedidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the wetland birds.

Size
9–21.5 in long (23–55 cm) — a diving water bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Marshes, ponds, lakeshores and other freshwater wetlands.
Diet
Aquatic invertebrates, small fish, frogs and plant matter.
Range
Recorded on 246 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 19 states, most concentrated in the Great Basin.
Family
Podicipedidae · Wetland birds

Notable Eared Grebe TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eared Grebe. See the full index history below.

Eared Grebe Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe is projected to rise about 117% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.01–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+117%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe is projected to rise about 117% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.01–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.410.000.83
20270.410.000.83
20280.420.000.84
20290.420.010.84
20300.430.010.84

Where the Eared Grebe Is Detected

BBS routes recording Eared Grebe, sized by most recent count.

Eared Grebe Population Trend by State

Eared Grebe population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizonainsufficient datan/a4
California+29%197324
Colorado-3%198021
Idaho-72%198310
Iowainsufficient datan/a1
Kansasinsufficient datan/a2
Minnesotainsufficient datan/a4
Montana+15%197433
Nebraska-89%19819
Nevada+974%19739
New Mexico-89%19925
North Dakota36×197031
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a1
Oregon-39%197213
South Dakota24×197115
Texasinsufficient datan/a5
Utah+249%198622
Washington-87%19795
Wyoming+390%197632

Eared Grebe Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Eared Grebe population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Great Basin+348%197152
Northern Rockies+732%197634
Prairie Potholes39×197048
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau11×198026
Badlands and Prairies+67%197136
Shortgrass Prairie-61%197816
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-76%198010
Coastal California-92%19735
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-97%19807

Eared Grebe Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 7662% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.