BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eared Grebe In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Eared Grebe in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 39× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

39×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eared Grebe in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Eared Grebe In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.40–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.40–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.40–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.30.264.4
20272.40.304.4
20282.40.334.5
20292.40.374.5
20302.50.404.5

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Eared Grebe in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WestbyMONTANA1212023
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA942025
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA352019
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA162019
TenneyMINNESOTA151992
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA142025
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA102021
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA82024
VirgelleMONTANA62018
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA52025
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA52011
CourtlandMINNESOTA42005
GlasgowMONTANA41982
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA42004
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA42023
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA41991
SunburstMONTANA32006
ClevelandMONTANA32010
MaltaMONTANA32024
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA32022
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA32025
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA32025
DawsonMINNESOTA22005
Great FallsMONTANA22018
WhitlashMONTANA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.