BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eared Grebe In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Eared Grebe in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 39× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

39×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eared Grebe has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 39× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Eared Grebe In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.41–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.41–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.274.4
20262.40.304.5
20272.40.344.5
20282.50.384.5
20292.50.414.6

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Eared Grebe in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WestbyMONTANA1212023
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA762024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA352019
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA282024
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA162019
TenneyMINNESOTA151992
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA122022
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA122024
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA102021
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA102024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA82024
VirgelleMONTANA62018
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA52011
CourtlandMINNESOTA42005
GlasgowMONTANA41982
Ester LakeMONTANA42024
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA42004
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA41991
SunburstMONTANA32006
ClevelandMONTANA32010
MaltaMONTANA32024
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA32022
DawsonMINNESOTA22005
Great FallsMONTANA22018
WhitlashMONTANA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.