BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eared Grebe In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWetland birds

Eared Grebe in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-71%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eared Grebe has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Eared Grebe In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±478.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±478.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±478.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.060.000.23
20250.050.000.22
20260.050.000.22
20270.050.000.22
20280.050.000.22

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Eared Grebe in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wildhorse LCOLORADO302015
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO102007
WakaTEXAS61997
KiowaCOLORADO51999
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO51978
PantexTEXAS41999
HaswellCOLORADO32022
AmherstCOLORADO22007
NunnCOLORADO22019
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO22023
FrionaTEXAS22001
JulesburgCOLORADO12011
PlymellKANSAS12021
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA12016
FloydadaTEXAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.