BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eared Grebe In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWetland birds

Eared Grebe in Great Basin has surged: up 348% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+348%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eared Grebe has surged in Great Basin: up 348% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Eared Grebe In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in Great Basin is projected to rise about 803% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±333.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+803%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±333.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in Great Basin is projected to rise about 803% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±333.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.70.0011
20273.70.0011
20283.70.0011
20293.70.0011
20303.70.0011

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Eared Grebe in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warner VallyOREGON532024
DorrisCALIFORNIA502019
Bald Mtn.NEVADA172025
LynnUTAH152021
Dobbin CreekNEVADA142017
CallaoUTAH132025
CortezNEVADA122025
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA111999
BentonCALIFORNIA102025
Three ForksOREGON102011
Bear RiverUTAH72011
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA61974
PrestonIDAHO61993
Oak CityUTAH61982
Blackft ResIDAHO51999
MadelineCALIFORNIA42022
Daniels ResIDAHO41991
Modoc PointOREGON42010
BrewsterWASHINGTON32011
NubieberCALIFORNIA21985
IngallsCALIFORNIA21990
LikelyCALIFORNIA22015
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA21982
HenryIDAHO21981
Iron SpringsIDAHO22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.