BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eared Grebe In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWetland birds

Eared Grebe in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1980.

11×Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eared Grebe has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Eared Grebe In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.85 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.11–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±490.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±490.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.85 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.11–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±490.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.650.061.2
20270.660.071.2
20280.670.091.3
20290.690.101.3
20300.700.111.3

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Eared Grebe in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
M Warner ResUTAH1202025
VernalUTAH402018
AlamosaCOLORADO242023
AltonUTAH221998
BrookhurstWYOMING202022
Navajo LakeUTAH172017
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO62024
DinosaurCOLORADO52025
Mcphee Res.COLORADO52019
GuffeyCOLORADO42017
Stinking Lk.NEW-MEXICO41996
Main CanyonUTAH42019
WaldenCOLORADO22016
Willow PeakCOLORADO22009
TarryallCOLORADO22018
CortezCOLORADO21998
Dixie NfUTAH22019
FerronUTAH22021
DoloresCOLORADO11984
FalfaCOLORADO11980
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO11975
DoylevilleCOLORADO11989
PiedraCOLORADO12012
Cortez 2COLORADO12016
DulceNEW-MEXICO12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.