BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eared Grebe In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWetland birds

Eared Grebe in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+135%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eared Grebe has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Eared Grebe In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.81Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.790.002.3
20260.800.002.3
20270.800.002.3
20280.810.002.3
20290.810.002.3

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Eared Grebe in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA272024
Two DotMONTANA192024
HighwoodMONTANA182013
Wheat BasinMONTANA142024
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA142024
SavageMONTANA81987
IngomarMONTANA32023
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA32021
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA31986
WelchWYOMING31995
RoyMONTANA22008
BrusettMONTANA21989
ShawmutMONTANA22024
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA21997
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA22018
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA22013
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA21994
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA21993
KayceeWYOMING22024
Seely 2WYOMING22007
BucknumWYOMING22001
JordanMONTANA12017
CircleMONTANA11993
FlatwillowMONTANA11978
PowdervilleMONTANA11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.