BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eared Grebe Population Trend in Nevada

All statesWetland birds

Eared Grebe in Nevada has surged: up 974% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+974%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eared Grebe Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eared Grebe has surged in Nevada: up 974% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Eared Grebe Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in Nevada is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±194.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±194.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eared Grebe in Nevada is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±194.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0027
20270.000.0027
20280.000.0027
20290.000.0027
20300.000.0027

Eared Grebe Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Eared Grebe in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bald Mtn.1720251992
Dobbin Creek1420171970
Cortez1220251971
Silver Peak 2320252025
Ash Meadows220241993
Gardnerville220032003
Virgin Creek120151995
Eureka120021996
Illipah120131999

Eared Grebe Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasminnesotamontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.