BirdAnalyst
Guild · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wetland Birds In Florida

All statesFlorida

39 species in this guild. As a group they are -54%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wetland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Florida, down 54% since 1968.

Wetland Birds In Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Florida is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Florida is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.33.7
20272.41.23.7
20282.41.23.6
20292.31.13.5
20302.31.13.5

Member Species In Florida

Wetland birds species in Florida.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
American CootRallidae-93%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae-91%
King RailRallidae-90%
Least TernLaridae-90%
Pied-billed GrebePodicipedidae-89%
Yellow-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-89%
Royal TernLaridae-87%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-86%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-72%
Reddish EgretArdeidae-72%
Purple GallinuleRallidae-69%
Tricolored HeronArdeidae-69%
Black SkimmerLaridae-69%
Little Blue HeronArdeidae-66%
Green HeronArdeidae-65%
Herring GullLaridae-59%
Seaside SparrowPasserellidae-58%
White IbisThreskiornithidae-57%
Great EgretArdeidae-57%
Snowy EgretArdeidae-56%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae-54%
Least BitternArdeidae-54%
Boat-tailed GrackleIcteridae-51%
Western Cattle-EgretArdeidae-48%
Common GallinuleRallidae-37%
Clapper RailRallidae-23%
Caspian TernLaridae-21%
Gull-billed TernLaridae-21%
LimpkinAramidae-9%
Ring-billed GullLaridae-9%
AnhingaAnhingidae-7%
Brown PelicanPelecanidae-7%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae+17%
Laughing GullLaridae+18%
Forster's TernLaridae+44%
Wood StorkCiconiidae+48%
Roseate SpoonbillThreskiornithidae+195%
Glossy IbisThreskiornithidae+234%
Sandhill CraneGruidae+264%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.