BirdAnalyst
Guild · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wetland Birds In Florida

All statesFlorida

32 species in this guild. As a group they are -51%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wetland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Florida, down 51% since 1968.

Wetland Birds In Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.1 (95% range 0.92–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.92–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.1 (95% range 0.92–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.13.4
20262.21.03.3
20272.10.993.3
20282.10.963.3
20292.10.923.2

Member Species In Florida

Wetland birds species in Florida.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Least TernLaridae-98%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae-94%
American CootRallidae-93%
King RailRallidae-90%
Yellow-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-89%
Pied-billed GrebePodicipedidae-89%
Royal TernLaridae-80%
Purple GallinuleRallidae-78%
Reddish EgretArdeidae-73%
Black SkimmerLaridae-73%
Tricolored HeronArdeidae-68%
Little Blue HeronArdeidae-65%
Green HeronArdeidae-64%
Great EgretArdeidae-62%
White IbisThreskiornithidae-61%
Herring GullLaridae-59%
Snowy EgretArdeidae-58%
Least BitternArdeidae-55%
Western Cattle-EgretArdeidae-53%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae-51%
Common GallinuleRallidae-38%
Brown PelicanPelecanidae-27%
Gull-billed TernLaridae-21%
Clapper RailRallidae-18%
Caspian TernLaridae-12%
Ring-billed GullLaridae-9%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae+4%
Laughing GullLaridae+35%
Forster's TernLaridae+111%
Roseate SpoonbillThreskiornithidae+144%
Sandhill CraneGruidae+224%
Glossy IbisThreskiornithidae+327%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.